Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 12.195946 14.237103 16.466475 19.075838 22.039520 25.294148 29.131775
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.825297 11.552890 14.829830 19.027044 24.227316 30.423643 38.326700
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.418511 9.309282 13.086569 18.314781 25.283419 34.162444 46.226018
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 4.852531 7.719204 11.755358 17.731983 26.210262 37.636013 53.988728
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.941549 6.806117 11.112173 17.869998 27.975282 42.244827 63.559279
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.173286 5.924539 10.322956 17.607117 29.035331 45.864834 71.975715
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.806584 5.604830 10.319619 18.488761 31.826132 52.154494 84.680236
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.419472 5.162999 10.028476 18.833490 33.763736 57.268475 95.972437
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.061507 4.696588 9.609461 18.881197 35.180792 61.637569 106.390351
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.767692 4.291079 9.227240 18.921197 36.550280 65.989693 117.039297
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.677889 4.286554 9.588891 20.334301 40.400039 74.655194 135.202834
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.542260 4.154268 9.676717 21.231973 43.394895 82.075677 151.762445
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.400775 3.989858 9.694047 22.031577 46.353726 89.770274 169.516183
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.195137 3.628481 9.245476 21.853678 47.478703 94.370560 182.343059
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.975144 3.175831 8.520125 21.004534 47.214851 96.451628 190.898777
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.804282 2.807540 7.919641 20.330795 47.208414 98.969629 200.359988
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.705557 2.616733 7.707286 20.479940 48.876891 104.719136 216.034939
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.599670 2.374498 7.323455 20.181373 49.567200 108.626895 228.512496
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.563574 2.344000 7.480604 21.173345 53.104629 118.304690 252.404078
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.507256 2.230326 7.394903 21.561009 55.339939 125.522769 271.958357
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.446119 2.081689 7.186387 21.614559 56.826426 131.317704 289.064149
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.392641 1.944419 6.985526 21.659520 58.290364 137.148824 306.547963
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.388380 1.997260 7.357248 23.248893 63.480298 151.030025 340.762662